Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Expect 5-10 cm of fresh snow by Saturday morning falling under moderate southwesterly winds with freezing levels back down to 1700 m. Continued light snow flurries are expected Saturday morning before an organized system brings another 5-15 cm overnight and 15-25 cm throughout the day on Sunday, then another 20-35 cm on Monday. Freezing levels hovering around 1800 m and strong southwesterly winds expected during the height of the storm on Sunday.

Over the past week, very large slab avalanches have been running on the mid-March persistent weak layer. What makes this spooky is that the majority of these avalanches have been remote triggered, some from as far as 200m away. This interface remains very reactive. While it's a few days old now, the photo in this Mountain Information Network post provides a very powerful visual: https://bit.ly/1CS2Nld

Warm temperatures and light rain have promoted settlement within the most recent recent storm snow, but the region has a very serious persistent slab problem just under the surface. A 50 to 150cm thick slab is poorly bonded to the facet/crust persistent weak layer buried mid-March. This interface has been incredibly volatile recently and remains sensitive to human triggering, especially where the slab is thinner. Recent compression tests have produced sudden planar failures at this interface. At lower elevations, rain has saturated the snowpack. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well-settled and strong.