Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
Avoid Avalanche Terrain.
Solar input and rapidly rising freezing levels will likely result in a widespread natural avalanche cycle.
Check out our latest blog about the forecasted warming.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Thursday by 4 pm.
As freezing levels rise we expect avalanche activity to increase in both size and frequency.
On Sunday, a sledder accidentally triggered a size 2.5 wind slab avalanche on a west aspect at 1580 m on Mt Beadnell, commonly referred to as the Adrian riding area. This resulted in a critical burial, serious injuries, and helicopter evacuation.
Snowpack Summary
As the sun comes out and freezing levels rise the snow surface will become moist or wet at all elevations and on all aspects.
80 to 120 cm of recent snow has been redistributed by southerly winds. Â This new snow sits over a layer of softer, faceted snow which itself overlies a crust on all but high north aspects. Large surface hoar grains have been observed just below the storm snow in the Mt Cain area. The bond at this interface is likely improving under the weight of the recent snow but it is not yet reliable. It has produced recent destructive avalanches.
The mid and lower snowpack is generally settled and strong.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. 8 to 10 km/h northwest alpine wind. Freezing level falling to 3400 m.
Friday
Mostly sunny. 10 to 15 km/h northeast alpine wind. Freezing level rising to 3400 m.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. 10 km/h east alpine wind. Freezing level around 3400 m.
Sunday
Sunny. 25 to 40 km/h southeast alpine wind. Freezing level around 3400 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
- Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
80-150 cm of recent storm snow is settling over a weak layer of faceted snow and spotty surface hoar on a firm crust. Rising freezing levels and solar input will increase the likelihood of triggering this layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Wet
Warming and periods of sun will produce widespread wet loose avalanches, especially on steep sun-exposed slopes. These may step-down and trigger deeper slab avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5