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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2013–Feb 15th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Ice climbers should pay close attention to the effect of warming temperatures on the snowpack.  Plan to be off climbs with solar exposed slopes above early in the day.

Weather Forecast

The mild valley bottom temperatures on Friday will not reach the alpine.  Moderate Westerly winds at treeline and below will reach severe in the alpine.  Skies will be partly cloudy and no new snow is expected.  On Saturday, models are calling for snow flurries that may produce localized amounts approaching 10-15 cm (don't hold your breath!)

Snowpack Summary

Hard windslab is bridging the weak basal facets above treeline.  Limited whumpfing has been observed at treeline in the Parker Ridge area.  Very little new snow in the past few days.  Moderate SW winds continues to build pockets of thin windslab on lee aspects at treeline and above. The snowpack is weak and faceted below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, several loose snow avalanches were observed along SE facing alpine ridge lines.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin pockets of windslab can be expected below Northeasterly ridge lines.  These windslabs may be triggered on steeper slopes.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The hard windslabs that dominate the alpine snowpack have bridged weakness below.  These slabs have not been reactive. It may be possible to trigger an avalanche on steep unsupported terrain from thin areas and the edges of these slabs.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 3