Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 22nd, 2013 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Early season hazards lurk just under the surface. Quality skiing is difficult to locate.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Flurries will continue this week. Possibly 5-10cm on Monday if we are lucky. Winds may increase to moderate from SW. Temperatures will remain seasonal ranging from -5 to -16. It may feel much warmer in the valley bottoms.

Snowpack Summary

Variable snow distribution at treeline and above. Wind slabs continue to develop in lee terrain features. Wind slab and a mainly facetted snowpack overlies October 27 rain crust which is distributed sporadically through the forecast area. Basal facets and depth hoar exist just off the ground. Below treeline remains unsupportive.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday observed several size 2's, likely solar initiated, on the crossloaded gullies above Polar Circus on Mt Cirrus. They stopped mid-path. Saturday, we observed 2 size 3 avalanches on east facing cross-loaded alpine bowl near Mt. Saskatchewan/Wilson area, 2 size 2.5 on a similar aspect in the Winston Churchill range.

Confidence

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The Oct 27 raincrust has a sporadic distribution. An avalanche on this layer could still step down to ground and have severe consequences.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent turbulent winds have redistributed snow into sheltered terrain features. Anything that is steep enough to slide and has sufficient snow to ski on should be evaluated.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 23rd, 2013 4:00PM