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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 22nd, 2013–Dec 23rd, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Early season hazards lurk just under the surface. Quality skiing is difficult to locate.

Weather Forecast

Flurries will continue this week. Possibly 5-10cm on Monday if we are lucky. Winds may increase to moderate from SW. Temperatures will remain seasonal ranging from -5 to -16. It may feel much warmer in the valley bottoms.

Snowpack Summary

Variable snow distribution at treeline and above. Wind slabs continue to develop in lee terrain features. Wind slab and a mainly facetted snowpack overlies October 27 rain crust which is distributed sporadically through the forecast area. Basal facets and depth hoar exist just off the ground.  Below treeline remains unsupportive.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday observed several size 2's, likely solar initiated, on the crossloaded gullies above Polar Circus on Mt Cirrus. They stopped mid-path. Saturday, we observed 2 size 3 avalanches on east facing cross-loaded alpine bowl near Mt. Saskatchewan/Wilson area, 2 size 2.5 on a similar aspect in the Winston Churchill range.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The Oct 27 raincrust has a sporadic distribution. An avalanche on this layer could still step down to ground and have severe consequences.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent turbulent winds  have redistributed snow into sheltered terrain features. Anything that is steep enough to slide and has sufficient snow to ski on should be evaluated.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2