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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 11th, 2016–Mar 12th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Don't be fooled by the lack of natural activity.  The weakness around the buried persistent slab  is still lurking in the snowpack and is most likely triggered in Portal/Whistler Creek and Maligne Lake Areas.

Weather Forecast

Clear and freezing level rising to over 2000 m on Saturday then an intense but short storm Saturday night with heavy snow, falling freezing level and strong South winds dropping up to 10 cm.  Temperatures remain cool on Sunday and snow with light winds on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Maligne/Jasper: Variable snow depth above tree-line, relative to exposure. Average HS 70cm. Surface wind slabs and persistent slab down 40-90cm. Icefields: Variable snow depth above tree-line, relative to exposure. Average HS 120cm. Widespread wind slabs overlaying supportive mid pack and weak base.

Avalanche Summary

Field team in the Icefields noted a few size 2 slab avalanches on cross-loaded Alpine features, west aspect. Whumphing and cracking noted below tree line around Bald Hills.  Marmot reported little in the way of natural activity around the ski hill today except a cornice initiated slab on Sherpa.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This problem is most active in the Maligne and surrounding Jasper area where the average snow pack is shallow but is proving much less active in the Icefields area.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Uniform wind slab has formed on most lee alpine and tree line slopes and cross-loaded features. 
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2