Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 27th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

A warm storm may bring 10-15cm on Thursday. Local amounts may be more. Danger ratings will be directly linked to the amount of new snow and wind transport.

Summary

Weather Forecast

A warm weak storm Thursday may bring 10-15cm of snow and moderate wind gales. Supposed to be most intense by noon Thursday with 1700m freezing level. The accompanying snow transport may be enough to overload some slopes but the the overall intensity, amounts, and timing is uncertain. We have been disappointed before.

Snowpack Summary

Only 5-10cm of snow arrived Tuesday night thus little change; however, this will continue to be transported onto weak sandwiched wind slab layers in the lee aspects. The main concern remains the top 25cms of the snowpack. Some wind slabs may be reactive on a already weaken, faceted snowpack at exposed tree line, alpine, and crossloaded features.

Avalanche Summary

West of Jasper on Sunday a skier triggered a soft slab. Two skiers were on a crossloaded slope. One escaped to the side but the second was caught and slid for 70m. He was buried shallow and self excavated. Average crown depth 75cms. Wednesday's helicopter flight around Columbia Icefields only observed a few size 1-1.5 NE Alpine-TL.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Windslabs will continue to grow with expected storm input. Some may be reaching critical mass if this storm input arrives. Skiers should be cautious to assess overhead hazards and slope stability next few days.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in steep terrain, and may entrain significant amounts of snow in gully features. This is a condition of the snowpack being facets.

On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 28th, 2016 4:00PM