Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 1600-1800 m and ridge winds are light to moderate from the W-NW. Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of flurries. The freezing level is around 1200 m and ridge winds are light from the N-NW. Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries. The freezing level is around 2000-2200 m and ridge winds are light.
Avalanche Summary
It is likely that there was some natural avalanche activity on Sunday and Monday associated with warm temperatures and strong solar radiation.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures and strong sunshine likely created a solid melt-freeze crust on the surface in most places. High shady slopes may still have 10-15 cm of dry snow sitting on a previous crust. The surface crust will likely break down during the day resulting in moist or wet surface snow. The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February (now down up to 80-100 cm) should stay on your radar, especially on all alpine slopes that will see the intense sun tomorrow. Any activity at this interface would be large and destructive. Also, give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below corniced ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 6