Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

SATURDAY: Cloudy with light flurries starting in the afternoon and 5-10 cm of new snow overnight, light to moderate south winds, freezing level around 1300 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, moderate southwest winds, freezing level around 1300 m.MONDAY: Storm starting midday with up to 5 cm of new snow by the afternoon, strong southwest winds, freezing level around 1700 m.

Recent avalanche reports in the region include size 1-2 loose wet avalanches in rain soaked snow at lower elevations. On Thursday, a small slab in Waterton stepped down in a shallow snowpack area below a cliff to release a size 2 deep persistent slab avalanche. Earlier in the week, a few size 2 solar-triggered persistent slab avalanches were observed in the Elkford area.For the weekend, watch for reactive wind slabs at higher elevations. Also keep in mind that the deep persistent slab problem is a low probability/high consequence scenario that warrants extra caution around and below large open slopes.

5-20 cm of new wind affected snow can be found above 1800 m, while lower elevations will have a combination of moist snow and rain crusts as freezing levels fluctuate. Moderate southwest winds have redistributed the new snow into reactive wind slabs in exposed terrain. Beneath the new snow, you'll find a mix of hard old wind slabs, melt-freeze crusts, and moist snow from the recent warm spell. The midpack consists of 50-100 cm of settled snow from last weeks storm. In deep snowpack areas, the lower snowpack appear to be well settled with only isolated concerns about the mid-December facet layer which comprises the bottom third of the snowpack. In shallow snowpack areas, this layer is weak and faceted. Watch this video from the South Rockies field team for some recent test results on this layer.