Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Watch for fresh wind slab formation if you notice the wind pick up. Check out the latest Forecaster Blog for tips on managing the persistent slab problem in this region.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.
Weather Forecast
Friday night: Clear. Light northwest wind. Alpine temperature around -27 C.
Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Moderate northwest wind. Alpine high around -18 C.
Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with flurries starting in the afternoon. Strong southwest wind. High of -10.
Monday: 5-10 cm new snow. Moderate southwest wind. High of -5 C.
Avalanche Summary
Wind slabs were touchy on Thursday when natural and remotely triggered size 2 wind slab avalanches were reported on easterly aspects at alpine and treeline elevations.
Explosive control work on Wednesday produced numerous size 3 wind slab avalanches in the alpine on primarily northwest aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Recent winds have created fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above.
The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now down 50-120 cm. Activity on this layer has been sporadic. It has generally been triggered on steep, rocky slopes, with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
This layer has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.
Terrain and Travel
- Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
- Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Fresh wind slabs are likely to form at upper elevations as the wind picks up this weekend. Lingering reactivity may also be observed in older wind slabs on a variety of aspects.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A persistent slab problem formed by a crust down 60-100 cm has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario that is difficult to forecast.
Avoid likely trigger spots such as steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3