Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 7th, 2012 8:46AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices and Loose Wet.

pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Cloud building by afternoon, with a few flurries possible. Southerly winds increasing by afternoon. Freezing level near valley bottom.Thursday/Friday: A few cm snow each day. Moderate southerly winds. Freezing level rising to 1500m late Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

Solar warming has caused many avalanches on steep sunny aspects, mostly in the size 1-1.5 range. Large chunks of cornice fall have been reported most days, with limited effect on the slope below.

Snowpack Summary

Very warm alpine temperatures recently melted surface snow layers. A crust (or moist snow, depending on the time of day) now exists to ridge top on solar aspects. Large weak cornices are plentiful and wind slabs exist in certain areas. The upper snowpack appears to be settling well. Below about 1500m, crust/facet layers buried in early January are still causing operators concern.

Problems

Cornices

Large cornices are looming over many slopes. They are weakest when it's warm and sunny. A falling chunk could trigger a large avalanche on the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 7

Loose Wet

Direct sun and warming can trigger loose avalanches, especially in steep south-facing terrain. This problem will decrease when cloud cover arrives.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Feb 8th, 2012 3:00AM