Avalanche Forecast

Good - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate conditions in the interior on Monday and will begin to weaken on Tuesday. A weak Pacific frontal system is forecast to reach the coast on Tuesday and may bring light precipitation to the interior regions on Wednesday. There is currently some uncertainty in the weather models on the timing and intensity of the precipitation on Wednesday.Monday: Mostly sunny, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -6C, light N winds at treelineTuesday: Mostly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon, dry conditions, treeline temperatures around -8C, light SW winds at treelineWednesday: Cloudy, light snowfall 3-6cm, treeline temperatures around -8C, light NW winds at treeline

On Friday (and to a lesser extent on Saturday) there were numerous reports of natural avalanches occurring on steep south-facing slopes caused by solar radiation and warm temperatures. With the colder temperatures and increased cloud cover on Sunday, natural avalanche activity appears to have mostly stopped and at the time of writing this bulletin, no new avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack depths vary, but in general there is around 200 to 250cm of snow at tree line and as much as 300 cm on lee slopes in the alpine. In the south and to the east of the region, there are still areas with a relatively thin snowpack. The recent dry, warm weather has generally consolidated the upper snowpack. As temperatures now begin to cool, stability in the upper snowpack should increase further. Keep in mind that 'Low Hazard' does not mean 'No Hazard' and that residual risk of avalanches still exists. Old, stubborn hard wind slabs may still exist in isolated areas. A basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground is still a concern in some areas, and was the culprit with some of the very large recent avalanches. . The depth of this layer makes triggering an avalanche on it unlikely (maybe a heavy load on a thin spot in steep terrain, rapid temperature change, or cornice fall), but the consequences would be large and very destructive.Large surface hoar is reported to have formed in sheltered areas at all elevations with the exception of open south-facing slopes where the sun has caused melting and formed a sun crust.