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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 22nd, 2013–Mar 23rd, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Expect conditions to be very aspect dependant. It is Winter on Northerly aspects with dry snow and very large cornices. And it is Spring on Southerly aspects with moist snow above old crusts.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Saturday: Mostly clear overnight with alpine temperatures dropping down to -13.0. Light Easterly or Northeasterly winds are expected. Freezing levels rising to about 1200 metres during the day.Sunday: A ridge of High pressure will be centered over the Interior ranges bringing Light Southwest winds and daytime highs of about -6.0 in the alpine. Strong solar radiation and freezing levels rising to about 1300 metres.Monday: The ridge is expected to move Eastwards during the day, but mostly sunny conditions should continue during the day.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches, cornice falls, and skier controlled avalanches were reported up to size 2.0 that did not release below the storm snow. Expect loose moist snow to fall naturally from steep terrain and cliff bands that may trigger the storm snow where it is moist and sitting on a previous crust.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow can be found on solar aspects up to about tree-line. Cold clear nights are expected to develop new melt/freeze crusts in areas that became moist. There is close to a metre of storm snow that has fallen in the last few days. This storm slab is sitting above variable surfaces that include crusts and moist layers that were deposited during the wet (Pineapple Express) storm last week. Periods of strong winds in the alpine transported the storm snow into thick pockets of wind slab that may take several days to settle and bond to the old surface. Cornice growth has been reported to be extensive and weakly bonded. Natural cornice falls are a concern, especially if we see periods of strong solar radiation. Cornice falls or storm slabs in motion may step down to the weak layer of buried surface hoar from March 10th.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs and pockets of wind transported snow may take a few days to settle and bond. Periods of strong solar radiation may trigger the storm slab where it is sitting on a buried crust.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Large loads like cornice fall may trigger the deeply buried March 10th surface hoar layer.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 6