Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 16th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Wet Slabs.

istorm, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Spring Conditions. Sunny skies and very high freezing levels increases the avalanche danger. The surface crust holds the snowpack together and may break down rapidly if there is no re-freeze overnight.

Summary

Weather Forecast

High pressure is building and is expected to bring the warmest temperatures of the year to date. SUNDAY: some high cloud, dry, light southerly wind, and freezing levels rising up to at around 3000 metres which means treeline temperatures around plus 10 degrees. MONDAY: clear & sunny, dry, light wind and freezing levels even higher at 3500 metres. Tuesday: more of the same but possibly even slightly warmer.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported, but we have very few eyes and ears still in the mountains reporting. Most commercial operations in the region have finished their season and data is sparse.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is currently going through a typical spring melt-freeze cycle on all aspects and at all elevations, except possibly high true-north slopes which could be holding onto cold snow. The strength (thickness) of the surface crust and how quickly it breaks down during the day are important factors to focus on. Watch for new snow releasing as loose wet avalanches when the sun comes out. Watch for very warm temperatures developing this weekend through Tuesday or Wednesday; the hottest weather this year is forecast, possibly testing the snowpack's ability to gracefully melt away. Little or no overnight freezing would intensify this test.

Problems

Loose Wet

Sunny skies and high freezing levels will weaken the surface snow on solar aspects. Shaded aspects in the alpine may warm up enough to release as loose wet avalanches.

Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Strong solar radiation and high freezing levels will continue to test remaining cornices in the alpine. Watch your overhead hazard and avoid travelling beneath corniced ridges.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Wet Slabs

The likelihood of wet slab avalanches increases over the next few days with forecast high freezing levels and strong solar radiation. Be especially careful at mid- and lower-elevations where the entire snowpack is mushy and your feet punch in deep.

Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Apr 17th, 2016 2:00PM