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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 7th, 2017–Mar 8th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

A week of snowfall and occasional strong winds has left wind slabs and some cornices primed for human triggering. Avoid overhead hazards and evaluate terrain carefully before committing to bigger lines.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

We're looking at occasional flurries and then a more organized system coming Thursday night. WEDNESDAY: Flurries overnight Tuesday with 5-15 cm of new snow, 20-30 km/h southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -7 C. THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries and up to 3-5 cm of new snow, 10-20 km/h southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -11 C. FRIDAY: Snow Thursday overnight into Friday (10-20cm) , 20-40 km/h southeast winds, alpine temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, explosive control and ski cutting produced size 1-1.5 avalanches at treeline and in the alpine. Cornice fall in Waterton Park resulted in a Size 2.5, entraining lots of snow. Natural activity is expected to taper off, but storm and wind slabs will remain susceptible to human triggering.

Snowpack Summary

We've had daily snowfalls of 5-10cm since Saturday, bringing the total from the past week to 50-80 cm. At times, strong southwesterly winds redistributed the new snow onto leeward slopes, building thicker and stiffer slabs. The new snow will likely have a poor bond to the old snow interface that consists of stiff wind slabs, crusts, and facets.The mid-pack in this region is generally strong, but the bottom third of the snowpack is composed of weak facets (sugary snow crystals). Approximately 100-120 cm of settled snow sits above this weak layer of sugary, rotten facets that developed in December. This remains a concern and should be on your radar, especially with the recent loading from snow and wind.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Gusty southwest winds at upper elevations have formed fresh wind slabs on leeward slopes and behind terrain features.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A weak layer near the base of the snowpack has the potential for large avalanches, especially in areas with minimal rider compaction or thin variable snow cover.
Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4