Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 11th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada wlewis, Avalanche Canada

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Rain and warm temperatures will continue to saturate the snowpack at all elevations creating prime conditions for wet loose avalanches.

Minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain during heavy precipitation if you choose to brave the weather. 

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

The storm continues, a more intense front moves over the region bringing heavy rain and wind.

TUESDAY NIGFreezing levels remain at 2500 m. Heavy rain continues below with 15-50 mm expected, with the heaviest accumulations in the far West and South. Strong southwest winds continue. Up to 10-20 mm additional rain is expected overnight. 

WEDNESDAY: Freezing levels remain at 2500 m. Heavy rain continues below with 15-50 mm expected, with the heaviest accumulations in the far West and South. Strong southwest winds continue. Up to 10-20 mm additional rain is expected overnight. 

THURSDAY: Finally the rain eases off early morning with clearing skies. Freezing levels remain above 2000 m with no significant precipitation expected and light easterly winds. 

FRIDAY: Freezing levels rise to nearly 3000 m as skies clear, winds increase over the day to strong southwest once again. 

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected to occur at all elevations with the heavy rain, snow and wind with rising temperatures over Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Prior to this storm, wet loose avalanches were observed on Sunday on South facing slopes to size 1 with the increased temperatures and solar input.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain, mixed precipitation and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow at all elevations. A series of crusts from recent rain and warmer temperatures are present up to 1400 m in the upper snowpack. These may be breaking down due to the recent rainfall, however while intact they also form a smooth bed surface for wet avalanches. 

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Expect loose wet avalanches at all elevations. Surface snow will quickly lose cohesion as rainfall continues. More reactive conditions exists where wet snow sits over a smooth crust. Be prepared to change your travel plans if you encounter wet and heavy surface snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 12th, 2022 4:00PM