Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 18th, 2020 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Warm sunny weather continues. Use increased caution when slopes and cornices warm up throughout the day.

Summary

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

A high pressure system brings clear dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, calm, freezing level drops to valley bottom, alpine temperatures drop to -8 C.

THURSDAY: Sunny, light wind, freezing level climbing to 1800 m in the afternoon, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.

FRIDAY: Sunny, light northwest wind, freezing level climbing to 2000 m in the afternoon, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate northwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1500 m in the afternoon, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

Warm sunny weather over the past few days has resulted in several wet loose avalanches on south-facing slopes across the region (see a photo in this MIN report). One natural size 2 slab was observed on a northeast alpine slope in the northern part of the region on Monday. Some large glide slab releases have been reported around the Coquihalla.

Looking forward, daily warming will likely cause more wet loose avalanches and potentially weaken cornices and lingering wind slabs. In northern parts of the region, the warming trend has potential for the deep persistent slab problem to reawaken.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions are highly variable with a mix of crusts, moist snow, and hard wind slabs. The surface will become moist on sun-exposed slopes and at lower elevations throughout the day.

In the northern part of the region (i.e. Duffey/Hurley/Gold Bridge), a deep instability may linger at the base of the snowpack. It has not produced an avalanche since Feb 17, but could still possibly be triggered on shallow rocky slopes or from large cornice falls.

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Sunny weather will cause wet loose avalanches on steep sun-exposed slopes. It could also weaken cornices.

Aspects: South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

In the north of the region (e.g. Duffey, Hurley, Gold Bridge), a deep persistent weak layer of faceted grains near the ground presents a lingering concern on shallow rocky slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Valid until: Mar 19th, 2020 4:00PM

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