Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Sunday night: Cloudy, isolated flurries / light southeast winds / alpine low temperature -18

Monday: Cloudy, isolated flurries / light south winds / alpine high temperature -10  

Tuesday: Cloudy, with sunny breaks / light and increasing southeast winds / alpine high temperature -10

Wednesday: Cloudy, isolated flurries / light southeast winds / alpine high temperature -12

There have been no recent avalanche reports in the region.

Last weekend, professional operators reported a small (size 1) avalanche releasing 40 cm deep on the Jan 11th surface hoar layer. Observers south of Valemount also reported reactivity on the surface hoar buried down 45 cm. They saw shooting cracks and slab activity at 1700m on an easterly aspect. A large glide slab avalanche was also reported likely failing late last weekend (MIN here). 

Previous winds scoured snow surfaces, loaded cornices, and formed stiff wind slabs in the alpine and around treeline. A thin sun crust may be found on steep solar aspects. Clear skies and cold temperatures are encouraging surface hoar growth and surface faceting. Below 1600 m, 20-30 cm of snow is settling above a decomposing melt freeze crust. 

A weak of layer of surface hoar can be found buried 35-60 cm deep. This layer last demonstrated reactivity over a week ago (Jan 16) in the south of the region near Valemount. It is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Although results from recent snowpack tests show increasingly resistant results (check out this MIN from near Barkerville), slope-specific assessment is warranted. 

Deeper in the snowpack, a couple of older persistent weak layers may still be identifiable from late and early December, consisting of surface hoar and a crust with faceted snow and buried anywhere from 70-150 cm deep. Prolonged periods of inactivity and unreactive snowpack test results suggest that these layers have trended towards dormancy. 

• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.