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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2013–Jan 19th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

The declining avalanche danger ratings depend on the cooler temperatures in this weekend's weather forecast.  Danger ratings will rise on Monday with predicted rain and warming temperatures.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures will begin a slight cool down on Saturday.  Moderate to strong ridge top winds will continue.  Light precipitation can be expected with broken skies.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme NW winds have stripped alpine and tree line fetch zones.  Hard to soft wind slabs are present on all lee slopes, predominately tree line and above.  In thin areas, these slabs are sitting on weak basal facets.  Below tree line, the old storm snow is moist and will consolidate with cooling temperatures, over a rotten base of facets.

Avalanche Summary

In the area around Whistler's, numerous full depth natural slab avalanches have been observed on thin, steep, lee slopes in the alpine.  We are seeing wide propagation to size 3 from continued NW wind loading.  These avalanches are running far in paths with steep run outs.   

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Hard to soft wind slabs have developed on lee aspects.  Numerous full depth natural slab avalanches have been observed on thin, steep, lee slopes in the alpine.  Wide propagations can be expected.
Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Wind slab avalanches primarily in the alpine, have triggered this weakness. These avalanches have gained significant mass as a result. This situation will more likely occur in shallow snowpack areas.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3