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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

May 1st, 2014–May 2nd, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Rain will change to snow Friday AM with 20 cm possible through the day.  Dangerous avalanche conditions will continue until cold temperatures stabilize the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures will remain warm overnight with up to 10mm of rain.  Easterly winds begin Friday am and temperatures will fall.  Rain will change to snow with 20 cm possible by Friday night.  Cool temperatures and snow through the weekend with total storm accumulation of 35 cm possible.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is warm at all elevations with isothermal conditions on all but northerly alpine aspects.  Rain overnight will continue to deteriorate the snowpack at treeline and below.  Stability will return to the snowpack base as temperatures drop through the weekend however surface storm snow instabilities are likely.

Avalanche Summary

A significant avalanche cycle continues at all elevations, most observations have been on southerly aspects. 

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet slab avalanches will slow as temperatures cool and rain changes to snow through the day.
Minimize exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches will slow as temperatures cool and rain changes to snow through the day.
Be very cautious with gully features.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3