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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche danger will increase as temperatures rise throughout the day. There is uncertainty around how the snowpack will handle this warm-up.

Choose increasingly conservative terrain as temperatures rise.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Partially cloudy. Light westerly winds. Freezing level around 1000 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Light westerly winds. Freezing level rising to 2500 m and staying elevated overnight. 

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Moderate to strong westerly winds. Freezing level around 2500 m.

THURSDAY: Cloud cover decreases throughout the day. Light westerly winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural cornice failures (size 1-2) have been observed, with one initiating a slab avalanche on the slope below. Several small wet loose avalanches have been observed on south-facing aspects from solar radiation and daytime warming.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of recent snowfall overlies 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations, while warm temperatures have left moist and crusty surfaces below 1800 m on all aspects and into the alpine on south-facing aspects. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent snowfall and westerly winds are expected to have formed wind slabs on lee features in the alpine. Watch for areas where recent slabs are overlying a sun crust that can act as a perfect bed surface.

Cornices have grown significantly in the past two weeks. Give them a wide berth when travelling on ridge-lines and minimize overhead exposure to large cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Cornices have grown significantly in the past two weeks. Warm temperatures may make cause cornices to become weak. Cornice failures are dangerous on their own, but also have the potential to trigger larger avalanches on the slopes below.

Give them a wide berth when travelling on ridge-lines and minimize overhead exposure to large cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Wet

If the sun comes out on Tuesday, warm temperatures compounded by strong solar radiation may cause rapid destabilization in the upper snowpack, creating wet loose avalanches out of steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5