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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 18th, 2022–Mar 19th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Use extra caution near ridge crests and steep roll overs where storm slab avalanches are likely to be largest and most reactive.

Confidence

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

Friday night: stormy with up to 10 cm of new snow and moderate southerly winds. Low of -2 at 1500 m.

Saturday: cloudy with up to 10cm of new snow and light southwest winds. Freezing levels rising to 1300m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. High of -2 at 1500 m. Light to mmoderate southwest winds.

Monday: mostly cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Moderate southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1600 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Over the past couple days skiers have triggered wind and storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5. Most of this avalanche activity has been on north aspects and at or above treeline.

Snowpack Summary

New wind and storm slab will likely form over Friday night and during the day on Saturday. 20 to 40 cm overlies surface hoar in shady, wind-sheltered areas and a hard melt-freeze crust on all aspects below 1500 m and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine.  

Around 50-80 cm deep, a weak layer of facets may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in February. This layer had been most reactive on north and northeast aspects between 1600 and 2100 m. While this layer is now likely dormant in most areas, it still remains a concern for professionals in the region and could still be capable of producing isolated large avalanches if triggered. Check out this forecaster blog for more info.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs will likely form over Friday night and during the day on Saturday. These slabs will be largest and most reactive on northerly aspects where wind loading will likely occur.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Fragile new cornices have been reported recently. Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer of facets above a hard melt-freeze crust may be found around 50-80 cm deep. Last week this layer produced large avalanches. The problem was most prevalent on north to northeast aspects between 1600 and 2100 m.

Aspects: North, North East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5