Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Winter continues on the coast as an upper trough moves across the province. A cool and unstable air mass will bring spring-like convective conditions including sunshine, moderate westerly ridgetop winds and localized snow squalls. Tuesday will mostly be a mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels near 1400 m and precipitation 2-7 mm. Wednesday will remain mostly cloudy with moderate to strong westerly ridgetop winds. Thursday, the winds will howl strong from the west at ridgetop and precipitation amounts up to 10 mm. Freezing levels will hover around 1500 m on Thursday and the rise throughout the day to 2500 m Friday night.

Reports of a human triggered size 2 storm slab was remotely triggered 15 m away. There was no personal involvement, however the slab did fail on facets above a crust which was buried on April 10th. Explosive control work triggered several size 1.5 loose dry avalanches and no new naturals were reported.

Up to 25 cm of recent storm snow sits on a variety of old snow surfaces including crusts, facets and spotty surface hoar which was buried on April 10th. This interface has shown a poor bond and has been reactive to human triggers remotely. Moderate to strong south west winds has redistributed the recent storm snow into wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features.  The mid-March persistent weak interface has been producing hard but sudden planar results in snowpack tests. This remains a concern in the region due to its potential to produce very large avalanches. There may be a low probability of triggering this layer, however; if it is triggered the consequence would be high. Large looming cornices may become weak with solar radiation and daytime warming. If a cornice fails it could trigger a large avalanche from the slope below.