Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Dec 5 – 6, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Forecast confidence is very poor, we desperately need your observations right now. Please email them to [email protected]

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Strong to Extreme SW winds will likely transport snow into fresh wind slabs which may extend further down the slope than usual.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    A weak layer of facets buried a meter deep may fail when overloaded by a skier, sledder or wind transported snow. Forecasted warming may increase sensitivity to human triggering. Avalanches on this layer could be surprisingly large.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A pattern shift is underway as dry and cold northwest flow gives way to rather mild southwest flow. Storm totals through the weekend look pretty bleak for the Rockies, but the door appears to be open to a succession of storms through the middle of next week.Saturday: Freezing Level: 500m with potential for above freezing temps between 1000m and 2000m; Precipitation: 1-3mm | Trace; Wind: Treeline: Moderate to Strong, SW | Ridgetop: Extreme, SW Sunday: Freezing Level: 1300m; Precipitation: 0-2mm | trace-2cm; Wind: Treeline: Moderate, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, W/SWMonday: Freezing Level: 1800m; Precipitation: Nil | Trace; Wind: Treeline: Moderate to Strong, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, SW

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity reported.  Have you seen anything recently?

Snowpack Summary

As we begin our forecasting season, we are working with almost no field data. If you have been out in the mountains, we'd love to hear from you. There is at least one, maybe more, problematic layers in the South Rockies snowpack. Last weekends 30 - 60cm of storm snow buried a weak layer of facets over a crust which formed during November's dry spell. That interface is probably around a meter down now. Not much us known about the reactivity of this layer, nor the slab above it. But, it doesn't take much of a leap of faith to understand that a meter deep slab sitting on a persistent weak layer is a potentially bad thing.This forecast isn't going to get much better until we get some field observations. If you've got some, please send them in. Eventually you'll be able to use the Mountain Information Network, but for now please email your obs to: [email protected] THANKS!

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