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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 21st, 2013–Dec 22nd, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The pattern switches to a more characteristic SW flow over the next 24 hours which will open the door to some decent snow accumulations. Freezing levels rise to around 1000m, but the upper elevations should do quite well with regard to snowfall.Sunday: Freezing Level: 700m; Precip: 4/8mm - 8/15cm Wind: Lht gusting Strong SouthSunday Night: Freezing Level: Rising to 1000m Precip: 13/18mm - 20/30cm Monday: Freezing Level: 1200m Precip: 2/4mm - 4/8cm Wind: Mod/Strong, W Tuesday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom Precip: Nil Wind: Lht SW

Avalanche Summary

A few natural size 2 avalanches were observed Friday on a north facing slope with a shallow snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at Treeline are between 75 - 120cm. Alpine depths vary between 100 - 180cm. We're dealing with a complex snowpack in the Cariboo Mountains at this time. See this video for a great visual.The upper snowpack contains storm snow, wind slabs, surface hoar, and facets. Previously warm temps and as much as 85cm of new snow have combined to form a cohesive slab on top of the November 28 surface hoar and facets. Snowpack tests are showing Sudden Planar results on this layer with medium loads which indicates the potential for human triggering. There's not a whole lot of snow between riders and sugary snow (facets) near the base of the snowpack. In some places this crust facet combo is failing naturally. As a result you'll notice that there is a Persistent Slab problem on the front page. Human triggering of large destructive avalanches is possible at this time.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate winds and fresh snow continue to come together to create fresh wind slabs.  These new wind slabs are forming on the backs of old wind slabs that may still be sensitive to human triggering.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A buried persistent weak layer of facets, surface hoar, and/or crust is buried by 40-70 cm of storm snow and may be susceptible to human triggering. Wind slab avalanches may step down and trigger larger persistent slab avalanches.
Avoid rock outcroppings, steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.>Choose conservative well supported lines and watch for clues of instability.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6