Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

A cold front will push the warm air mass out of the interior by Tuesday afternoon with freezing levels returning close to valley bottom early Wednesday morning. The north of the region may see light snow with accumulations of 5-10cm Tuesday with a freezing level of around 1500m. Winds will be moderate dropping to light from the south west.

We are still in a complex avalanche scenario where touchy conditions are likely to persist. A snowpack with several critical avalanche layers continues to be stressed by snow rain strong winds and warm temperatures. This is a recipe for a prolonged and widespread avalanche cycle that has produced very large avalanches up to size 3.5. I suspect that the mid-January surface hoar layer has been responsible for the majority of the recent avalanche activity. I also suspect that a large enough trigger in the right spot could have the potential to wake up the deeper mid-December surface hoar especially in open terrain at treeline. Loose wet and wet slab avalanches can be expected in step terrain until freezing levels drop.

The upper snow pack is settling rapidly and moist to wet snow can be found in the on all aspects and elevations. The mid-January surface hoar layer can be found between 40 and 80 cm down. It is currently my greatest concern. The midpack is broken by the mid-December surface hoar layer that is now 80 to 140cm below the surface. Snowpack tests indicate this layer is gaining strength in many areas although it remains a concern especially in open terrain at treeline.