Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 15th, 2017 5:03PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada mbender, Avalanche Canada

Conditions vary throughout the region. Precipitation amounts and the freezing level have been higher overall south of Valemount. Ratings reflect conditions in the south of the region.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Moderate southwest wind southwest / Alpine temperature -6 / Freezing level: 1100mFRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5cm / Moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -8 / Freezing level 1200mSATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 10-15cm / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -4 / Freezing level 1500mMore details can be found on theMountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

It is expected that there was a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the past 3 days in the areas south of Valemount with warm temperatures and rain up to 2000m. Warming temperatures on Monday afternoon destabilized the snowpack, resulting in a widespread natural avalanche cycle below treeline. A widespread natural avalanche cycle to Size 2.5 was reported below treeline on Monday afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region, surface snow up to 2000m is moist or wet. There has been 5-15cm of fresh snow with moderate to strong southerly winds each of the past several days creating storm slabs and wind slabs tree line and above. This recent new snow sits on faceted snow, thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects, as well as surface hoar in sheltered areas in some parts of the region. Approximately 80-120 cm below the surface you may find the mid-February persistent weakness. Professionals in the region have warned that the load above this layer has reached a critical amount, particularly where it presents as a crust. Deep persistent weaknesses in the lower third of the snowpack still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller slab avalanches, especially with the warming air temperatures and/or intense sunshine.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Weaknesses within and below the recent storm snow are susceptible to human triggering. These storm slabs are particularly deep and touchy on slopes loaded by southerly winds and have the potential to step down to deeper persistent weaknesses.
If triggered, the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Persistent weakness layered throughout the snowpack create the potential for very large step-down avalanches. The risk of triggering a deeper weak layer will be heightened while overlying storm slabs remain sensitive to human triggering.
Avoid or use extreme caution around thin snowpack areas.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Mar 16th, 2017 2:00PM