Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 1st, 2014 8:49AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Large and destructive human-triggered avalanches are still possible. Remain suspicious of steep, unsupported slopes at treeline and in the alpine.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Very light flurries and a mix of sun and cloud are expected for the forecast period as a ridge of pressure stays parked over the province. Alpine winds will be moderate to strong from the northwest on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday the winds should be generally light from the southwest. Alpine temperatures should hover at about -12 on Tuesday, rising slightly for Wednesday and Thursday. No significant snowfall is expected until Friday.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't had any new reports of avalanche activity. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions.If you have any observations, please send them to forecaster@avalanche.ca.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 100cm of recent storm snow sits on weak crystals which formed throughout early and mid-November. These weak crystals include facets on a hard rain crust, and surface hoar (which may also sit on a crust on steep southerly slopes). Snowpack data from the Cariboo region is very limited at the moment, but I expect these layers are reacting similarly to the North Selkirk/Monashees because the formation conditions were generally the same. Snowpack tests on Sunday in Rogers Pass suggest the layers can still be human triggered, and if triggered, are capable of producing wide propagations and large avalanches. Recent strong and variable winds may have redistributed surface snow creating dense wind slabs in exposed terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Up to 100cm of recent snow overlies weak crystals which are most reactive at higher elevations. Triggering may have become less likely; however, avalanches on this layer would be large and destructive.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Conditions may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Dec 2nd, 2014 2:00PM