Avalanche forecast

Salt River and Wyoming Ranges

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Backcountry avalanche conditions are dangerous. Riders and skiers are likely to trigger avalanches today. These avalanches could be small to very large in size and could occur on all aspects and elevations. Do not underestimate how weak the snowpack is and do not let weekend enthusiasm cloud your judgement. Avoid being in steep avalanche terrain or under any large avalanche paths.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    A widespread thick layer of weak snow that formed during December's dry period has been covered by nearly 7 feet of snow and over 8 inches of moisture this month. This has resulted in a very unstable snowpack. Hard slab avalanches can be easily triggered today with depths to four feet at the upper elevations and to two feet at lower elevations. These slabs could fail on approach or after a slope has been tracked. Yesterday, a large avalanche occurred when the third person entered the terrain. Increasing temperatures and sunlight will increase the sensitivity of these slabs this afternoon.

    (1/13/2024)

    Remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche in Squaw Creek. NE aspect 8900' 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    Avalanches could also involve deeper weak layers near the base of the snowpack with depths to five feet or more. This weak snow formed in November and is limited to higher elevation terrain. 

    (1/16/2024)

    This avalanche failed much larger than it did a few weeks ago. The crown depth indicates that it involved the deeper weak layers from November. Avalanches will be even larger today.

Avalanche Discussion

Rapid Warming

The likelihood of natural avalanches has decreased, bringing the rating from High to Considerable. The decrease in rating is not an indication that more terrain is safe to ride.  It is not. The decrease in sensitivity means instead of failing on approach or as the first person enters terrain, slabs may fail after a slope has been tracked several times. For the most part skier traffic is doing nothing to break up the weak layers. They are preserved and will fail if impacted by the right forces.

The weather forecast is for warming into the mid-thirties. Warming could be even more dramatic if the forecast high clouds are particularly thin. Settlement rates will be continue to be high as the snowpack rapidly adjusts to the recent loading. The likelihood of triggering slab avalanches will certainly increase today and the chance for wet slides may also develop. Whoomphing and collapse are obvious signs of just how unstable the snowpack is. However, if you do not experience either, do not think the weak layer is not present.  Do not let good visibility, or larger crowds impact cautious decision making. This weakness will persist for a while and vigilance to conservative choices is warranted. Use caution even in terrain that is familiar and "never slides".  

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