Avalanche forecast

Arthur's Pass

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
4 · High
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 weeks ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The storm cycle is in full swing; more snow is forecast in the next 12 hours. Expect a further change in conditions; any backcountry travel will require good assessment skills. New snow today with gale winds will have left some areas stripped and others with pockets of deep wind slab, some areas over 1+ m deep. Caution in vally bottom with steep terrain above, large avalanches possible to valley floor.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Expect the wind slab hazard to keep increasing during the day; snow totals are expected to keep increasing in the next 36 hours with changing wind directions. Good snow assessment skills required for changing conditons.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    If the sun comes out tomorrow the loose wet hazadr will increase during the day.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Multiple loose, wet size 1-1.5 were observed on all aspects on the 24th that ran during the storm. See public observation.

If you see anything, please report it in the public observations section of the NZAA website.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Snow today to 1500m with further falls to the west of the divide ( 70+mm of rain in the last 48hrs in Arthurs pass) , tapering to the east. Gale westerly winds have been associated with the snow today, so expect some deep packets while other areas are stripped back to firm surfaces. There have been a couple of storm cycles this season, bringing a base at higher elevations but associated with strong winds, leaving a pressed snowpack with no significant layers of concern. Limited snow cover below 1700m before the last storm. At lower elevations (below 2000m) ice crusts exist but bonding to the ice layers has been good.

Mountain Weather

Showers, possibly heavy until evening, falling as snow above 800 metres. Winds: severe gale westerly 95 km/h. Changing gale southerly 75 km/h early evening. Freezing level 1200 metres, lowering to 900 metres at night.

Sliding Danger

Conditions have changed today; expect areas to be stripped back to hard surfaces from the gale winds. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea, as many firmer areas now exist.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered