Avalanche Forecast

Good - -1

Heavy precipitation is expected to start on Friday afternoon. The freezing level is expected to rise to around 1000m close to the coast. Overnight, accumulations will be heavy and strong southwesterly winds will blow. Up to 30-40 cm dense new snow will be on the ground by Saturday morning. On Saturday, further heavy snowfall is anticipated, as unstable, convective air moves in behind the storm. Temperatures will cool slightly. On Sunday, another punchy winter storm system will bring further heavy snowfall.

Only sluffing in steep terrain was observed on Thursday. However, I anticipate avalanche activity will rapidly increase in response to heavy forecast snow amounts and warming temperatures.

20-40 cm low density storm snow currently lies on the surface. Moderate winds (first from the SW and then gradually shifting NW then NE) have now had a chance to blow this low density, cold snow around and as a result, fresh wind slabs are prevalent on lee slopes in exposed areas. Below the storm snow lies a rain crust at lower elevations (up to around 1800 m) and old wind slabs/sastrugi in exposed areas at higher elevations. I would be suspicious about the interface between the old layers and the new storm snow. Reports indicate there is not a lot of surface hoar around (likely blown away). However, the cold temperatures likely mean facets will be preserved. Acting in conjunction with a rain crust or a hard wind slab layer, this could set up some touchy slab avalanche conditions in the upper snowpack. Concern for lower snowpack layers has diminished and remains only in shallow snowpack areas. Facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack may still be a concern in shallow areas. Fragile cornices are still looming.