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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2012–Feb 1st, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: moderate snowfall on tuesday night continuing through wednesday morning easing in the afternoon / moderate southwest winds turning light and northwest / freezing level at 900m Thursday: mostly clear / moderate southwest winds / freezing level at about 900m increasing in the afternoon Friday: clear skies with a significant warming trend / light to moderate southwest winds

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 1 soft windslab avalanches were observed in the Whistler area on Tuesday. Expect continued avalanche activity with forecast snowfall and the trailing warming trend expected for late thursday/friday.

Snowpack Summary

Storm slabs that developed on the weekend have gained significant strength, as have the heavy storm snow accumulations from last week. Subsequent surface conditions are variable to say the least due to fluctuating freezing levels and strong winds during those systems.The big story is the snow forecast for Tuesday night. Moderate accumulations and moderate southwest winds will make for new windslabs and continued storm slab development. Cornices should also be on your radar as strong southwest winds and steady snowfall have contributed to impressive development.About a metre down there are a variety of older snow surfaces that formed throughout January. These surfaces include facets, old wind slabs, and crusts. These interfaces have also gained considerable strength, but triggering may be possible with a heavy load in isolated terrain.Previous concerns about deeper persistent weak layers appear to have diminished.Snowpack depths at treeline are in the region of 260 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate snowfall amounts and moderate winds will set up touchy new wind slabs on lee slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Storm Slabs

Heavy amounts of storm snow have fallen on a variety of old surfaces. A deeper release has decreased in probability, but would have a high consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Cornices

Strong winds and new snow have added mass to sensitive cornices. They may be destructive by themselves, and may also be a trigger for the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6