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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2013–Mar 16th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

Synopsis:  The pattern calms down a bit as the flow becomes more zonal (westerly).  A few weak features impact the coast through the weekend.Saturday:  Freezing Level: 1200m Precip: 3-6mm/4-12cm Wind: SW Moderate gusting Strong.Sunday:  Freezing Level: 700m Precip: trace Wind: NW, Moderate.Monday: Freezing Level: 1000m Precip: 10mm/10-20cm Wind: S, Light.

Avalanche Summary

Evidence of a natural avalanche cycle to size 2.5 is surfacing as professionals begin to venture further afield.  Soft slabs failing within the storm snow with crowns to 40 cm illustrate the current problem well.

Snowpack Summary

The storm has delivered around 60 cm of heavy snow at upper elevations while simultaneously raining as high as 1900m as freezing levels fluctuated during the storm.  The new snow has been settling rapidly and is slowly bonding to the previous snow surface, which includes faceted snow, surface hoar, and/or a crust.  This interface is most concerning where the surface hoar is sitting on a crust on previously sun-exposed sheltered treeline slopes.  Cool temperatures should limit natural avalanche activity but I suspect the snowpack could still use a bit of time to adjust to it's new load.  We also need to gather more information on this interface before we think getting into the bigger terrain.  Below this interface, the snowpack is strong and well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the new/old snow interface which consists of surface hoar, old wind slabs and crust.  We need to gain more information on this interface before we start thinking about bigger objectives.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Avoid large alpine features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6