Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Friday Overnight: Clear with a few cloudy periods in the evening, increasing cloud cover overnight. Light flurries possible in the early morning. Light to moderate northwest winds will shift southwest in the morning and increase into the strong range. 

Saturday: Snowing through out the day, heavy at times, accumulation 10-25cm. Strong southwest winds at ridgetop. Freezing levels remaining near valley bottom with alpine temperatures rising from -12 C to around -7 C. Continued snowfall overnight, another 15-25cm of accumulation is possible.

Sunday: Partially cloudy with light flurries possible in the morning. Light west winds, alpine temperatures around -10C.

Monday: Partially cloudy in the morning, with increasing cloud cover in the afternoon with flurries. Light southwesterly winds increasing in the afternoon into the moderate range. 

On Friday, operators reported several size 2.5 natural and cornice triggered storm slab in the alpine. Numerous explosives' and ski cutting results both loose dry and storm slab where observed up to size 2. One explosive result reported failing down to the early December crust in an isolated area. One natural size 2 persistent slab was reported on a NE aspect in the alpine.

On Friday, several natural slab avalanches where reported in the backcountry adjacent to Fernie Alpine Resort, with one notable persistent slab failing on the early December crust.

Since Monday, 50 cm of snow has accumulated, with another 10-20cm expected throughout the day today. Moderate to strong southwest wind today will transport this unconsolidated snow into fresh wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. In sheltered areas, this new snow will remain unconsolidated. 

Below this new snow, consolidated snow from the previous weekend storm sits over a substantial crust that formed in early December. This crust is likely 20 cm thick (or more) and is present across aspects below 2400m. A thin layer of weak facets (sugary snow) can found above this crust. 

The lower snowpack consists of a mix of various early season crusts and mainly moist snow. Snowpack depths range from 55-170 cm at treeline elevations and taper quickly below 1800 m.

• Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
• Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
• Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.
• Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.