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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 23rd, 2022–Jan 24th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

The hazard has the potential to increase if the sun comes out and causes an unexpected rapid rise in temperature.

Weather Forecast

Monday will be sun, cloud, flurries, -7C, and light gusting 35km/hr West winds. Tuesday will be sun, cloud, no new snow, -11 to -7C, and light West winds. Wednesday will be very similar but slightly colder. 

Snowpack Summary

Treeline and below, the top 30-50cm is low to medium hardness. Above Treeline, a stiff windslab is the top 30cm layer. A crust with loose weak facets can be found at lower elevations approximately 40-60cm down. The mid-pack is medium to hard stiffness of mixed crystal forms except where loose barely supportive Facets dominate in shallow locations.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday's Icefield's patrol noted a low elevation wet loose surface avalanche cycle with numerous size 1's. Saturday's patrol observed one size 2 on a West aspect initiating mid-path. Surface snowballing also occurred along the low roadside paths. Maligne observed one size 2.5, persistent slab, 200m wide and 1m deep initiated by a cornice failure.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The main concern is where wind slabs have built over weak faceted snow. Watch for a hollow sounding snowpack. Strong ridgetop winds and snow transport continued on Sunday.

  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The slab problem overlies different layers depending on elevation and aspect. Lower elevations has a rain crust 40-60cm down with weak facets on top reacting to tests. Above 1950m, a buried surface facet layer down 20-30cm is the primary concern.

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.
  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3