Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 28th, 2016–Dec 29th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

The wind has a lot of new snow to whip up into fresh wind slabs. I recommend caution in wind affected areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Mostly dry with some sunny breaks. Ridgetop winds southwest 40-60 km/h. Treeline temperatures rising to around -4C after a cold morning. FRIDAY: Mostly dry and clear. Winds becoming light westerly. Temperatures around -4C.SATURDAY: Flurries in the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly winds. Temperatures around -8C.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, new storm snow produced numerous size 1.5-2.5 avalanches, including natural and skier-triggered loose dry and storm slab avalanches on north and east aspects. On Wednesday, explosive control continued to release storm slabs, but they remained relatively small (up to size 2).

Snowpack Summary

Quite a lot (up to 50 cm) of recent low density snow has fallen, which is now available to be redistributed by mostly moderate southwesterly winds. The new snow sits above a variety of surfaces including old hard wind slabs and surface hoar. The cold weather in early December left several layers of weak surface hoar and facets which are now buried 50-80 cm deep. These layers have been inactive for the past week, as it appears the lower snowpack is well-settled. A thick crust rain crust from mid-November is near the bottom of the snowpack and remains well bonded to the surrounding snow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Expect fresh wind slabs to form at higher elevations as winds pick up and redistribute loose snow.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2