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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 7th, 2013–Mar 8th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

 A weak upper trough over the South Rockies is slowly dissipating providing more clearing and less precipitation with only trace amounts of snow forecast for Friday.  Overnight into Friday:  Trace accumulations only.  Freezing levels remain close to valley bottom even during the day and winds will be light.Saturday:  No new precipitation.  Good freeze overnight, but daytime temperatures could rise to over 1500m with clear skies.  Winds light from the North West.Sunday:  More of a western zonal weather pattern expected.  Light precipitation possible.  Warmer daytime temperatures with freezing levels up to 1800m.  Winds light from the South West.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 were observed throughout the forecast region on Thursday.  They mostly occurred in steep terrain and entrained recent storm snow.Ski cutting and cornice cutting tests in the Harvey Pass area produced loose and soft slab avalanches to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 20 cm of new low density snow has fallen in the last 24hrs which brings the total snow recent storm totals to 70 cm. Greatest accumulations have occurred in the Elk Valley South and Flathead regions while areas such as Elk Valley North and Crowsnest pass may not have seen as much new snow.  South west winds have contributed to cornice growth and soft slabs formation in open areas in the alpine and treeline. All of the recent snow accumulations overlie a rain crust which exists up to about 2000m in elevation in much of the forecast area. Mid and lower pack is strong and well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Soft slabs have formed at upper elevations with recent settlement and wind transport, especially in lee features and near ridge tops.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Sluffs may trigger soft slabs>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches are running far and fast, entraining a surprising amount of snow.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornice growth continues with recent snowfall and south west winds.  Cornice fall in itself is dangerous and could also trigger slab avalanches below.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5