Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 29th, 2014 8:15AM
The alpine rating is Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeStrong northwesterly winds will continue to form hard wind slabs. If the snow feels hollow, or drum-like, wide propagations are possible.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
The dry ridge of high pressure will persist bringing mainly clear skies for the entire forecast period. Ridgetop temperatures should hover around -23 for each day, while ridge top winds will be mainly moderate from the northwest.
Avalanche Summary
Wind slabs to size 2.5 were observed in high elevation terrain in the south of the region on Saturday. In one reported case, a wind slab in motion stepped down to the buried December crust. Since then, observations have been very limited. With forecast northwest winds, we could see a new round of wind slab activity as surface snow gets redistributed onto south-facing slopes.
Snowpack Summary
On the surface, up to 30cm of low-density snow exists. In the alpine and at treeline, strong to locally extreme winds have been conducive to blowing this snow into stiff and reactive wind slabs in exposed lee areas. 50 - 70 cm below the surface (more in wind affected areas) you may find a crust which formed in December. The crust, which may have surface hoar on top of it, may extend into the alpine to at least 2100 m. Where the crust exists, it may be bridging triggers from penetrating to deeper persistent weaknesses that formed earlier in the season. However, on high alpine slopes above where the rain crust formed, or in areas where rain didn't occur, deeply buried facets may still be susceptible to triggers.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Between 15 and 30 cm of low-density snow has been shifted by strong southwest winds into hard wind slabs. Forecast northwesterly winds will also redistribute the surface snow, adding to the complexity of the wind slab problem.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
A crust which formed in December should remain on your radar. Not much is known about its distribution in the South Rockies. However, in neighboring regions it has produced large avalanches. Dig down and test weak layers before committing to a line.
Stick to well supported terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 30th, 2014 2:00PM