Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

A series of weak disturbances will result in light intermittent snowfall during the forecast period. Tuesday: Partially cloudy, scattered flurries 1-3cm, freezing level rising to around 1400m, ridgetop winds 30-50 km/h SWTues. Night/Wednesday: Snowfall 2-8cm, freezing level around 1800m, ridgetop winds 30-50 km/h SW-WThursday: Snowfall 4-10cm, freezing level around 1200m, ridgetop winds 20-40 km/h SW

Reports of loose sluffing from steep, rocky terrain. On Sunday, a size 1.5 skier triggered avalanche was reported. This released down 40cm and it is expected to have failed on the early-Feb persistent weak layer.

10-20cm of new snowfall overlies surface hoar, facets, and/or a sun crust on south aspects.  Recent moderate to strong SW winds have created wind slabs in leeward and cross-loaded features. Previous wind from the NE created wind slabs which are now buried by new snow but still may be reactive.The primary concern remains a persistent slab that sits on a stubborn persistent weak layer consisting of a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar. The layer continues to show a high degree of sensitivity to human triggers. Wide propagations and remote triggering remain a concern. In the thinner snowpack areas such as the Crowsnest and northern Elk Valley, the slab is typically 30-60cm thick. In thicker areas such as the Flathead and around Fernie, the slab typically varies in thickness from 70-150cm. Check out the South Rockies Blog for a video discussing the persistent weak layer and the current avalanche problem. A weakness at the base of the snowpack may still exist in isolated areas of the region but triggering has become unlikely.