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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2016–Feb 20th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Newly formed wind slabs may remain touchy on Saturday. Cornices are also large and weak.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

A brief pulse will bring 5-12cm of new snow to the region on Friday night. Expect gradual clearing throughout the day on Saturday and mainly clear skies on Sunday. On Sunday night the region may see light flurries, but more clearing is expected on Monday. Ridgetop winds will be generally strong from the southwest with Friday and Sunday nights` systems; otherwise, they will remain mainly light. Freezing levels should hover between 1300 and 1500m for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche observations have been extremely limited, mostly due to stormy weather. New wind and snow forecast for Friday night will promote a round of wind slab activity in high elevation lee terrain.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and wind forecast for Friday night will form new wind slabs in lee terrain at treeline and in the alpine. Up to 10mm of precipitation fell on Thursday. At treeline and in the alpine, precipitation fell as snow and strong southwest winds formed wind slabs. Throughout the storm the rain line trended from about 1750m down to about 1500m. Ongoing stormy weather has also encouraged new cornice growth. Many of these cornices are reported to be huge and unsupported. About 20-40cm below the surface you may find a melt freeze crust which formed during the 2nd week of February. At the same interface, you may find surface hoar which most likely exists on high, north facing terrain. Rain and warm temperatures have likely flushed out this weakness in most areas; however, continued reactivity may exist in high elevation terrain above the recent rain line. West of the divide, a layer of buried surface hoar can be found between 50 and 70cm below the surface. Recent reports suggest this layer has become less of a concern.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Recent storms have encouraged ongoing cornice development. Large and unstable cornices may be destructive by themselves, but could also act as a trigger for an avalanche on the slope below.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Wind Slabs

New snow and wind on Friday night will form fresh and reactive wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine. New snow will also overlie wind slabs which formed prior to the weekend.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets on steep slopes below ridge crests.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3