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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2012–Nov 28th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

This bulletin is based on a very small amount of data. Significant variations in conditions exist.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels climb to 1500 m Wednesday before dropping back to 1200 m overnight and then stay steady near 1200 m throughout the forecast period.  Expect strong to extreme winds to develop out of the west around lunchtime Wednesday.  These winds should persist throughout the forecast period as a series of low pressure systems cross the province.  The forecast calls for light snowfall beginning in the wee hours of Thursday.  I expect 5 - 10 cm of snow Thursday morning, an additional 5 - 10 cm Thursday night and 5 - 15 cm Friday.  Timing and intensity of the storm should become clearer as the week goes on. 

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar probably blankets many slopes in the region.  It *could* be a problem when it starts snowing later this week.  Alpine snow depths are somewhere between 1 - 2 m.  Depths quickly drop below threshold at and below treeline.  An early season rain crust exists near the ground from rain events in late Oct./early Nov.  Wind exposed terrain at and above treeline likely harbors isolated wind slabs that range from 50 - 100 cm in depth. 

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Windslabs are likely getting less sensitive by the day, but you should still be suspect of steep wind loaded features at and above treeline.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets at and above treeline.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The early November crust can be found near the base of the snowpack.� Around a meter of snow rests on this crust.� It's getting hard to trigger, but I suspect you could still activate it in areas where the 'pack is thin and/or rocky.
Avoid thin, rocky and sparsely-treed slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4