Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 14th, 2018 5:06PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jfloyer, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region. Human triggered avalanches remain a concern, particularly at higher elevations.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: 10-15 cm new snow, falling as rain below 1600 m. Strong southerly winds.SATURDAY: Mostly dry. Freezing level around 800 m. Moderate southwesterly winds. SUNDAY: Around 10 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1700 m. Strong southerly winds.MONDAY: Around 10 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1600 m. Moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

There were two size 2 natural avalanches observed along the Duffy Lake road on Thursday night on north to west aspects. Explosive control work on Friday produced avalanches up to size 3 on the weak layer of facets buried 70-80 cm below the surface.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 1 m of new snow has fallen in this region since the latest round of storms started last Sunday. Strong southerly winds have distributed new snow into variable wind slabs in exposed locations. A crust at or near the surface likely exists up to approximately 1700 m.Below the recent storm snow lies a weak layer, comprising 20-30 cm of low density faceted snow. Initially, the snow did not bond well to this layer. While it's likely gaining strength, there is concern that slab avalanches remain possible on this layer.Near the base of the snowpack, a crust exists that previously had sugary facets. This could potentially still be of concern in high north facing areas in drier parts of the region. Elsewhere, this layer is no longer a concern.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Continued new snow and recent strong southerly winds have maintained the potential for storm snow avalanches, particularly on northerly aspects.

Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer buried approximately 70 cm below the surface has the potential to produce large avalanches.

Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Valid until: Dec 15th, 2018 2:00PM