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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 15th, 2018–Mar 16th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Incoming new snow should improve the skiing significantly. Check the bond of this new snow to the previous surfaces carefully before committing to any big terrain.

Weather Forecast

An unusual upper level flow is creating a weather pattern that is unusual and challenging for the weather models to predict.Friday: Cloudy with snow (up to 15cm). Alpine temps: Low -5 C, High -3 C. Ridge wind light. Freezing level: 1900m.Saturday: Flurries. (up to 5cm). Alpine temps: Low -7 C, High -3 C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level: 1900m.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh snow with light (gusting moderate) Northerly winds is building fresh storm slabs in exposed areas.  Incoming snow is falling on a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects below 3000m and old facetted wind slabs on polar aspects above 1700m. The weak Feb. 8th interface under the old windslabs may remain a concern on high north aspects.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity has been observed or reported.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm slabs may sit on a hard melt-freeze crust on solar aspects, and facets on polar aspects, assess the bond at these interfaces carefully before committing to any avalanche start zones.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created storm slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

With the freezing level forecast to be as high as 1900m on Friday, this could be a significant problem at lower elevations (particularly on ice climbs).
Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Persistent Slabs

At upper elevations polar aspects still held cold, faceted snow and did not receive either solar triggers or significant snowpack settlement this past week. Steep, unsupported slopes should be treated with due respect.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5