Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 2nd, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Expect the hazard to increase over the day Monday if forecasted snow amounts and wind materialize. Make terrain choices based on changing conditions.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The westerly flow is expected to bring snow and warmer temperatures though the night and leading into the week. Initial snow amounts are expected to be around 10cms for the S end of the forecast area Sunday night and through the day on Monday. A mod south wind could transport this snow and create a reverse loading pattern from the last wind event.

Snowpack Summary

We have a supportive mid-pack above 1,900m. A concerning weakness can be found consisting of decomposing surface hoar and or facetted grains. This may be 30-70cm down and the forecasted new snow could overload this layer and increase the hazard over the day Monday. Moderate winds have stiffened the surface snow in open areas above tree line.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow is expected to come in steadily with south winds and may slowly overload this interface. Watch for a reverse loading pattern from the south to north aspects because of the shift in wind direction.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 3rd, 2014 4:00PM