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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2013–Jan 16th, 2013
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Warm temperatures with possibility of rain on Thursday means that we don't anticipate any decrease in avalanche danger in the short term.  Conservative terrain choices are advised.

Weather Forecast

Warming trend continues, accompanied by intense NW winds at ridgetop for next 48 hours.  Rain is forecast for Thursday (5mm).  Freezing levels rising to 1400m.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack remains thin and facetted at lower elevations, but is supportive above treeline. Last week's storm snow has buried a surface hoar layer (Jan6) down approx 30cm.  Windslabs forming on Southerly alpine aspects and significant snow transport by intense winds.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous size 2 natural soft and hard slab avalanches observed in the alpine and several size 3.  Many of these slides are stepping to ground and running to valley bottom.  Widespread natural loose dry and spindrift avalanches originating from steep rocky terrain at all elevations.  These observations were made in the Columbia Icefield Area.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Significant new windslab formation and loading observed today with the arrival of intense NW winds at upper elevations. Once triggered, these events are stepping down to ground.
Avoid alpine terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Surface instabilities such as loose snow and new windslabs are stepping down to ground, which means a small  avalanche has the ability to become  large very quickly.
Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

Wind transported snow is triggering point releases, most commonly out of steep and rocky terrain.
Watch for terrain traps where small amounts of snow will acumulate into deep deposits.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2