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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2014–Jan 6th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision-making is essential right now as the  lingering deep instability will be with us for the foreseeable future.  Significant temperature change is expected in the next 24 hours.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures warming to reach a maximum of -5C in the Columbia Icefield area by midweek accompanied by light Southwesterly winds.  Potential for significant snowfall by the end of the week, starting on Wednesday and increasing in intensity towards the weekend. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of low density storm snow is settling and overlies existing wind slabs which in places has a very weak faceted basal layer. Below tree line the snow pack has very little support except in isolated open areas where wind slabs may exist. New windslabs have formed at upper elevations but lots of snow is still available for transport.

Avalanche Summary

Road patrols in the South end of the forecast area observed numerous size 3 slabs that failed on the basal facets and widespread smaller avalanches to size 2 on all aspects in the alpine involving windslabs and loose dry avalanches.  With recent storm snow plastered to steep terrain, natural loose dry activity is expected with warming temps.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Storm snow and wind have overloaded the weak basal layers in several places and caused numerous large natural avalanches in the alpine. Cornice fall, smaller slides, and skiers in shallow areas all have the ability to trigger deeper instabilities.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Avoid steep, open slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Wind Slabs

Recent storm snow and strong winds in the alpine are forming new windslabs at upper elevations.
Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

There is lots of new snow plastered to steep rock and ice terrain. With the expected warming trend (and solar effect) over the next week, expect this terrain to shed this snow.
Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2