Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 4th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Snow amounts will have a direct impact on the sensitivity of new windslabs. Weather models indicate anywhere from 10 - 30cm in the next 48 hours.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Light snow is expected to continue through the weekend with moderate NE winds and cold temperatures. We could possibly get 15 cm by Monday.

Snowpack Summary

New snow on the way will be reverse loading lee slopes with moderate NE winds. Surface faceting and surface hoar will be buried creating a second weak interface in the upper snowpack. Poor bonding between these layers is expected. This new snow sits on a weak and faceted mid-pack with depth hoar to ground.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations or reports today.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow is reverse loading on weak surface facets or surface hoar. These new slabs will bond poorly. Last week's slab from M to S winds are still suspect. Big open features and cross-loaded gulleys should be avoided until storm passes.

Keep an eye out for reverse loading created by an upslope storm.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Faceted snow on ledges and above ice climbs can be easily triggered and can grow quickly by entraining surrounding snow especially in gulley features.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 5th, 2017 4:00PM