Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 6th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs.

llarson, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Rider-triggered avalanches are still possible where the persistent weak layer is closer to the snow surface in shallow snowpack areas.

Read about this year's persistent weak layers in the Forecasters Blog

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported in the area.

This rider triggered a small avalanche in an opening, as shown in this MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 40 cm of soft snow has settled over a generally weak and faceted mid and lower snowpack.

There are two layers of concern that are relatively close together, the upper weak layer developed in mid-December is 30 to 50 cm deep. The lower weak layer developed in mid-November 70 to 100 cm. Triggering these layers is more likely in shallow, rocky, terrain features where the weak layers are closer to the surface.

Check out the Forecasters' blog for some more details on how to manage this year's persistent weak layers.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy, trace new snow, 10 km/h southwest, treeline temperature -5 ºC.

Saturday

Mainly cloudy, trace new snow, 10 to 20 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -6 ºC

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, flurries with accumulation from 2 to 5 cm, 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -6 ºC

Monday

Mainly cloudy, flurries tapering through the morning, 10 to 20 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -5 ºC

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

There are two weak layers, both composed of surface hoar and facets, anywhere from 40 to 150 cm deep. It may be more likely to trigger these layers where they are buried relatively shallow and where there is no supportive crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 7th, 2023 4:00PM