Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.

SUNDAY NIGHT: 10-25 cm of new snow, strong to extreme westerly wind, freezing level 1500 m.

MONDAY: Around 5 cm of new snow, moderate to strong westerly ridgetop wind, freezing level 1300 m.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate westerly wind, freezing level 800 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate westerly wind, freezing level 1000 m.

A size 1.5 loose dry avalanche was reported Friday out of steep rocky terrain near Valemount. With mind temperatures and cranking overnight winds, increased storm slab activity is expected at all elevations Monday. 

Last week, older winds slabs in cross and reverse-loaded terrain features surprised a number of skiers, triggering avalanches up to size 2.5. This surprisingly large human triggered avalanche was reported on a northwest facing feature at treeline.

10-25 cm of new snow is forecast to fall overnight. Recent snowfall amounts have been highest in the south of the region near Blue River, where current storm totals are in excess of 100 cm as of Sunday morning! Other areas have received as little as 20 cm since the cold snap. At upper elevations, all of this recent snow will be easily blown around by strong to extreme westerly winds, forming thick, reactive slabs in lee features. At lower elevations, this recent low density snow is likely settling and gaining slab property in the warm temperatures. 

Below sits the old, facetted and/or extensively wind affected snow that sat on the surface during the extended cold, windy drought period. There is uncertainty around the strength of this interface with the new snow, which will surely be tested by the ongoing loading.

We've now got 40 to 80 cm of snow above the early February persistent weak layer which is composed of surface hoar. This layer is most prevalent at treeline and in "treeline-like" features like cutblocks. On steep south-facing terrain, this layer may consist of facets on a sun crust. 

• Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Stick to simple terrain features and be certain your location isn't threatened by overhead hazard.