Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Mainly clear / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near 0 / freezing level 2300 m

FRIDAY - Sunny / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 3 / freezing level 2400 m

SATURDAY - Mainly sunny in the morning and increasing cloud in the afternoon / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near 2 / freezing level 2400 m, dropping to valley bottom overnight 

SUNDAY - Mainly cloudy with flurries / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1500 m 

There were a few size 1 natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches reported on solar aspects on Wednesday.

There were also reports of several size 2-2.5 natural wet loose avalanches in the neighbouring Waterton National Park region, and two size 2.5 natural persistent slab avalanches in the neighbouring Kananaskis Country region.

Sun and warm temperatures are our primary concern over the next few days. 

• Large cornices may weaken and fail, triggering slabs on the slopes below. 
• Loose-wet avalanches will likely be seen from solar aspects first and then possibly all aspects. 
• The slab sitting above the persistent weak layers may stiffen and consolidate further, failing as a natural avalanche or becoming more sensitive to skier and rider triggers.  
• Pockets of wind slab may be reactive on northeast-east aspects at upper elavtions. 

Upper elevations are highly wind-affected and scouring down to rocks or crusts can be seen on west to southwest aspects. On leeward (northeast-east) slopes, stiff pockets of wind-slab have formed at treeline and in the alpine.

40-60 cm (in some places up to 100 cm) of snow sits above a persistent weak layer of facets that was buried in mid-February. Recent snowpack tests indicate that this layer is reactive and has the potential to propagate widely, causing large avalanches. 

There is another persistent weak layer that was buried at the end of January. This layer consists of surface hoar, facets, and/or a hard melt-freeze crust. recent MIN reports show that these layers remain easily triggered by people. 

Weak faceted snow and a decomposing melt-freeze crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. 

• Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
• A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
• Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
• The trees are not the safe-haven they normally are at this time. Terrain at treeline is primed for human triggered avalanches.