Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2021–Feb 13th, 2021

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Vancouver Island.

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Past Weather

Cool temperatures and moderate to strong North winds have been transporting limited amounts of available snow . Cool temperatures and clear skies are promoting the formation of surface hoar and it is present in isolated areas sheltered and protected from both the sun and wind.

Weather Forecast

A stationary high pressure to the east of the region will continue to draw artic air into the forecast area. Beginning late Friday, weak frontal systems will begin bringing some precipitation to the area. The artic air and associated high pressure will retreat Sunday as the region will return to a typical seasonal western zonal flow. Temps and freezing levels will begin to rise.Friday: No new snow, Winds Light to Moderate from the Northeast, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 200 meters.Saturday: 5-10cm of snow, Winds Moderate to Strong from the North East , Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.Sunday: 1-5cm. Winds Light to Moderate from the South East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.

Terrain Advice

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features, Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; Identify features of concern. Avoid convex roll features.Seek terrain that is well supported.Avoid travel on South aspect terrain during the period of warming and direct sun exposure.Caution when transitioning from areas scoured by the wind into areas with recent wind loading.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar from size 10 to 20mm has been observed Tree line and below in specific areas protected from the wind and sun. Take time to observe and report its location as it will provide helpful information to the forecast team as future snow storms are likely to eventually bury it.Cool temps have begun to facet some of the upper surfaces and in areas are breaking down the upper surface crusts.The Jan 23, 2021 Persistent weak layer can be found between 60 and 100 cm deep and has been reactive to past testing. Available low density snow has been observed being transported by the north wind and small wind slabs are present on southerly terrain, expect as the scale of terrain increases that these winds slab will be exponentially bigger.

Snowpack Details

Surface: Highly variable surface conitions, new low density snow, wind scoured at upper ridge tops and wind loaded on southerly aspects. Surface hoar is forming on isolated terrain sheltered from the wind and sun.
Upper: A dense and strong layer of well bonded and settled snow.
Mid: An eroding crust with facets at its base ( JAN 21 PWL)
Lower: Well settled.

Confidence

Moderate -

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This problem has now become stubborn to triggering. **Location:** This problem is widespread, however isolated areas such as convex rolls and unsupported terrain is where it is most concerning. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are unlikely. Natural avalanches are very unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be large size 2.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

This problem may be small but in isolated terrain with larger adjacent areas of fetch it is likely to be problematic. Forecast North winds will transport new available snow. Expect this problem to become larger in terms of destructive size as winds continue. **Location:** Specific to South aspects in areas lee of ridgetops. Reverse winds expected Sunday may begin to develop new wind slab on North aspects. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are possible. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be small size 1 but in large terrain with available fetch zones to be large up to size 2.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Loose Dry

New dry snow expect over this forecast period will run far and fast on well developed firm and faceted surfaces. **Location:** Specific to Solar aspect terrain where loose and dry unconsolidated snow exists. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are possible. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be small size 1 but could gain mass and push a traveler into a terrain trap.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1